Autonomous vehicles are here. Major car manufacturers like Ford and BMW have been developing self-driving cars for a decade. But how will having more AVs on the road affect the climate? Will it reduce or increase fossil fuel use? Here are some considerations:
- Assuming AVs are electric vehicles, will they be powered by clean, renewable power, or electricity generated (at least partly) by dirty fossil fuels?
- Will the increase in driving efficiency (one estimate is that automated cars will be 15-20% more efficient than cars with human drivers) offset the increased energy to coordinate all the data storage, transfer, and analysis?
- Will people drive more and for longer distances if they can sit in the backseat, relax, and enjoy the view while the car drives them to their destination?
- Will AVs operated by the transportation companies drive around "looking" for riders, wasting energy and increasing traffic, like many ride-share drivers do? Or will these AVs stay in a fixed spot until they are called?
- Will the introduction of AVs make it less likely that someone will own a car? If so, then AVs should take more cars, and many fossil fuel cars, off the road.
Our experience with ride services like Uber and Lift and the availability of public transportation suggests that having a convenient and inexpensive way to get around does not keep people from buying cars for themselves or their families. Large cities are the exception to the standard one car per driver, but this has been true since the invention of the subway. The lack of parking places and the cost of parking a vehicle are plenty of incentives for people in cities not to own a car.
Overall, history has shown the widespread use of new technology increases overall energy use and its consequences. For example, Bitcoin and AI are powered by servers that use tremendous amounts of energy, offsetting any theoretical energy savings from using the technology to increase efficiency.
Think Locally
Some local organizations are moving to put AV in the net positive energy efficiency and pro-environment categories.
PRESTO is a program on the Contra Costa Transportation Authority (CCTA) that runs a free driverless shuttle service for residents and businesses of Bishop Ranch, Rossmoor, and Martinez. PRESTO is a pilot program that offers limited routes but a considerable promise of clean, free, efficient, and accessible public transportation. The shuttle in Rossmoor, for example, runs between 7 am and 5 pm along Tice Creek Drive between Gateway Club House and Tice Creek Fitness Center. A sponsor for the pilot program investors is Beep Autonomous Mobility Services. For those who want to go slow in trusting AV technology, there will be trained human assistants on every shuttle trip.
The Future Looks… Hopeful?
The jury is out on whether or not AVs will be a boon or a bust to the climate. In the global picture, the increase in greenhouse emissions continues and hit a record 57 gigatons in 2023. With technological advances, smart regulation of fossil fuels, and education that results in behavior changes and more sustainable living, we can still bend the curve on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. But technology alone won’t reverse the effects of global warming. It takes driving and living more efficiently or not driving at all.
Photo by Bernd 📷 Dittrich on Unsplash
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